This deliverable aims to present comprehensively spatial data, inputs, tools and method for constructing spatially explicit land use scenario.

This report presents an overview of different existing scenarios for the territory of the Black Sea Basin. Main sources include the IPCC, GSG and GEO scenarios. They are global scenarios with either country or broader- region calculations of future changes, like plausible changes for Western Europe, Eastern Europe and the Middle East. Consequently, a number of driving forces were extracted and shortly presented in graphs outlining the trajectories of most plausible changes in the Black Sea Basin. Storyline descriptions per group of country were developed following the IPCC approach and applying the existing predictions of future GDP and population density numbers. The report concludes with an overview of integrated tools for environmental scenario development.

This document illustrates the different phases leading to the creation of demographic scenarios for the countries included in the Black Sea Catchment (BSC). According with the enviroGRIDS scenarios, we analyze the UN projection variants for population, and we propose a methodology for the downscaling from national to regional level (NUTS2). Results include urban and total population trends over the period 2010-2050 for the 214 enviroGRIDS regions, consistent with BS HOT, BS ALONE, BS COOP and BS COOL scenarios.
Successively, we illustrate the methodology do define the estimation of future urban area surfaces, based mainly on the historical and future trends of urban densities.

Overview of available datasets and description of a technique to produce climate scenarios relevant to impact studies in the Black Sea Catchment.

This report presents the analyses of the land use scenarios, a review of the combined method used to quantify the enviroGRIDS land use demand and the disaggregation of the global scenarios at a regional scale. Global land use demand was obtained from IMAGE 2.2 and disaggregated at regional (NUTS2) level. Afterwards a cellular automaton based land use model was applied to allocate the land use demands at local level. Land use allocation rules were assigned based on the scenario storylines and local decision rules. As a result, four alternative land use scenarios were derived: BS HOT, BS ALONE, BS COOP and BS COOL. The designation of allocation rules introduces local decisions based not only on the scenario storylines and expert knowledge but also on historical land use patterns. The method used can fill the gap between the global and regional scales and consequently translate land use patterns at various spatial levels.

Description of the final data with technical specification and methodology with the different process steps